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SRExample situation: A Q4 Target Gap or a Strategic Account
Question
“As the regional sales lead of a manufacturer working through a distributor partner, I am EUR 650,000 short of my annual target of EUR 2.4 million, with one quarter left. Every opportunity needs pre-sales support from the distributor's application specialist, who is available only 24 days until year end. The distributor (18% margin) decides how that time is used. My company can lend one of its own specialists for at most 6 days, only to support tenders, billed to the distributor at EUR 950 a day plus about EUR 1,400 in travel costs per assignment. Opportunities: A, university hospital (competitor's account): EUR 360,000 this year, 30% win probability, 12 days; five-year contract of EUR 360,000 a year; if won, the distributor invests EUR 92,000 in the platform; a key reference site, three regional hospitals (about EUR 120,000 a year each) usually follow its choices, with an estimated 50% chance they switch to us within two years; the next chance to bid is five years away. B, regional hospital: EUR 210,000, 60%, 7 days; the distributor asks for an extra 10% discount, which it says would raise the win probability to 80%. C, private laboratory: EUR 140,000, 80%, 4 days. D, laboratory group: EUR 290,000, 40%, 9 days. E, cross-sell: a confirmatory test panel for 14 existing screening customers, EUR 16,000 a year each, 50% expected conversion, 7 days. F, upgrade: replacing 5 old platforms with the latest generation, EUR 45,000 each, 50% each, 5 days. Which customers should I focus on? How should I allocate the specialists' capacity? How do I get the distributor to commit to bidding on A? Should I grant the extra discount on B, and on what conditions? Is the target realistic, and how do I present the trade-off between Q4 results and the strategic account to my management?”
What to question
Can the distributor prove with evidence that the 10% discount raises the win probability on B to 80%? Can your specialists be used on D or B as well, or only on A? Can the E and F sales be delivered and invoiced before year end? What is the real probability of winning A?
How the depth changes
Focused → broader → deepest
Four perspectives quickly surface the core trade-off: the operational and practical angle, the assumptions behind the numbers, the financial impact,…
Eight perspectives add clarity and verifiability, a challenge to obvious bias, downside and extreme-risk scenarios, the market/customer angle,…
Twelve perspectives further stress-test capital discipline, negotiation dynamics, operating economics, logical consistency, the regulatory/compliance…
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